Tuesday, 9 June 2020

Boycott Chinese Products ? A Game Two can play

Of late ( and from time to time ), there is debate raging about boycotting of the Chinese products ( ie : cut back on imports from China )

Times of India has neatly summarized this issue and provided a proper perspective, in :

Boycott China's products? Figure this out / 06 June 2020

For easier understanding, I reproduce this report in following tabulation :

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BOYCOTT CHINA’S PRODUCTS ? FIGURE THIS OUT

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Item	Market Size ( Rs Cr )	Share of Chinese Products ( % )	Possibility of Substitution
Smart Phones	200,000	72	Very difficult
Telecom Equipment	12,000	25	Doable but costly
TV	25,000	Smart > 42-45 Non Smart > 7-9	Doable but expensive
Home Appliances	50,000	10 – 12	Easy now
Auto Components	$ 57 Billion	26	Tough
Internet Apps	450 million smart phone users	66	Easy
Solar Power	37,916 MW	90	Almost Impossible
Steel	108.5 MT	18 – 20	Doable but tough
Pharma / API	$ 2 Billion	60	Tough

My Take :

Ø For decades, every country has been trying to increase its EXPORTS and reduce its IMPORTS. Nothing new about this

Ø No country can perfectly ( 100 % ) balance its trade, with EACH and EVERY of its trading partners . With some trading partners, it would have a surplus and with some others, it would have a deficit

Ø Most countries would be happy if they manage to balance its OVERALL trade ( Total Exports = Total Imports )

Ø All countries would be happier if their total exports exceed their total imports ( theoretically, impossible )

Ø All countries realize – and reconcile with the fact that their overall SURPLUS or DEFICIT will keep fluctuating from year to year

Ø Even with any given trading partner, surplus / deficit , keep changing

Ø Of late, this ongoing game of trade-skirmishes have assumed the dimension of a full-fledged TRADE-WAR, because, for past 2 / 3 years , entire World Economy has been going down

Ø This has dramatically worsened in past 5 / 6 months due to COVID

Ø In most countries, millions have lost their jobs

Ø Each country is trying to revive its economy by cutting back on Imports and pushing its Exports, hoping that this would bring back the lost jobs

Ø Countries are trying to reduce Imports by imposing higher import duties

Ø They are trying to increase Exports by all kinds of Export Subsidies , ignoring WTO

Ø WTO is as good as defunct !

Ø No early revival of world economy is in sight . Current situation will become the NEW NORM

Ø For India , the only long-term solution is to turn our economy into a LOW COST ECONOMY

Ø Even that World-Trade Super power China , in April 2020 , dropped its Imports by 16.7 % and dropped its Exports by 3.3 %

Ø India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April 2020* are estimated to be USD 27.96 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of (-) 36.65 per cent over the same period last year.

Overall imports in April 2020* are estimated to be USD 27.80 billion, exhibiting a

negative growth of (-) 47.36 per cent over the same period last year.

( source : https://commerce.gov.in/ )

Ø According to data compiled by Teamlease, a provider of employment-related services, there are 57,000 compliance requirements and 3,100 filings for employers in India.

Compliance requirements change perhaps 4,000 times a year, imposing a vast burden on firms in the country.

India’s crisis is amplified by its red tape and bureaucracy—estimates suggest it takes 29 days to start a business in the country, 58 days and an average 8 per cent of a property’s value to register it and about 1,445 days for a company to resolve a commercial dispute through a local court—three times as long as it takes in high income economies.

As the China brand is sullied by the coronavirus crisis, the time is ripe for India to aggressively go for “flick of the pen reforms and long term structural reforms,” as Manish Sabharwal, chairman of TeamLease Services puts it.

[ source : https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/made-in-china-is-here-to-stay-1686521-2020-06-07 ]

Ø What can we do to cut back on our Imports ? Here is an “ Action Plan “ :

Making Best of Worst Times ? …………………….[ 29 Feb 2020 ]

Related readings :

How china makes cheap ? ………………………………………………………………..[ 08 Nov 2014 ]

Prakash / Piyush / Nitin ko Kyun Gussa aata hai ? ……………………………….[ 12 Sept 2015 ]

Level-Playing Field is a Double Edged Sword ! ……………………………………..[ 08 Feb 2017 ]

Poverty Alleviation – the Chinese Way ……………………………………………………..[ 02 Mar 2017 ]

When 2 is greater than 7 ? …………………………………………………………………. [ 04 June 2017 ]

Crying Wolf won’t Help ! ………………………………………………………………………..[ 08 July 2017 ]

Hypocrisy : to the Nth degree …………………………………………………………….[ 13 July 2017 ]

Amitabh Kant ko Gussa Kyun aataa hain ? ……………………………………………..[ 28 Aug 2017 ]

India Economic Summit ………………………………………………………………………….[ 08 Oct 2017 ]

Free Electricity ? Possible ……………………………………………………………………….[ 28 Dec 2017 ]

A Trade War Epidemic ? ……………………………………………………………………….[ 22 Mar 2018 ]

The Second Shot ? ……………………………………………………………………………….[ 22 Mar 2018 ]

Costing Plays a Key Role …………………………………………………………………………[ 18 Oct 2018 ]

Foundation of Economy ……………………………………………………………………..[ 03 Nov 2018 ]

Amitabh says : Grow Big ……………………………………………………………………….[ 24 Dec 2018 ]

Low Manpower Cost = Low Cost Economy ……………………………………………..[ 28 Sept 2019 ]

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Dear Shri Piyush Goyalji

( Commerce Minister / officeofmr@gov.in )

No one knows it better than yourself that the current Trade-War is in the process of being PERPETUAL

Our only hope to SURVIVE ( leaving aside any wishful thinking of having a positive trade surplus with our 19 leading trade partners ), is to compete in the international market, with better quality goods at low costs

No doubt private sector companies will resort to reducing labor costs through greater mechanization / low cost automation – with greater unemployment as an undesirable consequence

It is high time , government expands its coverage of existing schemes – and introduce new schemes – meant to encourage SELF EMPLOYMENT

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 10 June 2020

Monday, 8 June 2020

Once Upon a Time……….

Some 60 years ago :

Ø For possessing and using at home, a small ( or big ) RADIO , one had to have a LICENSE issued by the Postal Department . Every year, you had to go to the nearest Post Office, stand in a queue and, when your turn came, pay annual license renewal fee ( Rs 5 for small / Rs 10 for big ) . I do not remember what was the penalty for using a radio without license renewal. If you had 2 radios, you needed 2 licenses !

Ø Then about 40 years ago, while returning from a foreign trip, I brought with me, a CORDLESS TELEPHONE instrument. Before I can start using it, I had to send it to some Govt Dept ( I think, it was Telephone Department ) for allotment of a SPECIFIC FREQUENCY which only can be used for working of that instrument ! This took several months !

Ø If you wanted to shift your telephone instrument ( good old circular dialing type ), from your hall to your bedroom, you had to formally “ Apply “ to Mumbai Telephones , who will send a mechanic ( anytime during next 3 months ) to carry out the shifting

Ø Mumbai Telephone Department used to issue every year ( although, often it ended up being 2 years ), a big ( 400 pages ? ) TELEPHONE DIRECTORY ( one for each phone-owner ) . To get the latest copy you had to go to the Telephone Dept Office and surrender your OLD copy !

Ø To get my first landline phone ( at Shivaji Park – Dadar – Mumbai ) , I had to apply with a non-refundable deposit of Rs 3,000 and wait for 6 years !

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June 2020

Just came across following news :

Government issues draft rules for manufacturing, using drones

Extract :

Ø An authorised manufacturer or importer can sell its devices only to an individual or entity approved by the aviation regulator DGCA.

Ø Each drone importer, manufacturer, trader, owner and operator will need to take approval from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation

Ø An authorised unmanned aircraft system importer or manufacturer must not sell a UAS to any person except an authorised trader or owner.

Ø DGCA will have the powers to inspect a UAS manufacturing or maintenance facility before granting any authorisation under these rules

Ø No UAS shall operate in India unless there is in existence a valid third party insurance policy to cover the liability that may arise on account of a mishap involving such UAS

Ø No UAS should carry any payload except as permitted by the DGCA.

Ø Only Nano class drones, which are less than 250 grams, will be allowed to operate in India

Ø only a "qualified remote pilot" will be permitted to operate heavier drones.

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May be , all of these “ Rules / Regulations / Authorizations / Permissions / Approvals “ re manufacture / sale / use of DRONES , are necessary in today’s context

But, in not too far a future ( certainly not 40 / 60 years but very likely, 4 / 6 years ) , technology may have advanced so much that, persons sitting in any corner of the Earth, may send tiny / super tiny DRONES into India’s air-space and operated remotely from 10,000 km away !

Very likely , thousands of young Indians , sitting in hundreds of small towns of India , may themselves, want to deliver all kinds of goods and services , all over the world , using drones !

Imagine ONE MILLION tiny drones flying in our sky !

By then , “ Rules “ may not be able to “ regulate / control “ such Drone-Swarms

But my following suggestions might provide some clues :

Drone – a – Charya [ 02 Sept 2018 ]

Flock Dynamics [ 04 Sept 2018 ]

Drones Need Mid-Air Re-fueling [ 06 Sept 2018 ]

A Swarm-O-Drone is born [ 16 Nov 2017 ]

Locusts are invading ! [ 24 May 2020 ]

CC :

info@dronefederation.in

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09 June 2020

Sunday, 7 June 2020

Providing Jobs : a Fundamental Right ?

Newspapers would have us believe so

Eg : Following headline

All states must create jobs for migrants: Supreme Court / 06 June 2020

All that Supreme Court said was :

“ We propose that all states should put on record what scheme they have prepared for providing employment to these workers who have come.

We would also like a district-wise or village-wise data on who has come in and from where.”

The Court proposes to include this in its June 9 order.

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Here is another headline :

Govt weighs new employment options for migrant returnees

Extract :

With millions of migrant workers having returned home to the countryside in the midst of the lockdown imposed to slow the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) ,the Narendra Modi government is weighing multiple options --- from road construction to horticulture -- to find them work.

It’s also planning an initiative to upgrade their skills to suit the needs of a post-Covid-19 world.

A senior official involved in planning the initiative said schemes such as the job guarantee programme, rural housing for the poor and village road construction will be used to provide immediate jobs to the returnees.

“Apart from these schemes, we are also looking at supporting them in horticulture, animal husbandry and road construction works,” said the official, who didn’t want to be named.

The initiative will not entail any additional financial support from the exchequer, the officials explained.

Existing centrally sponsored and central sector schemes will be used to address a situation they described as extraordinary.

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My Take :

Considering that the Schemes are already “ existing “ and funds required are already “ allocated “ ( will not entail any additional financial support ? ), then what is meant by “ weighing multiple options “ ?

By the time those government officials get done “ weighing multiple options “ , most likely those migrant workers would have returned to the cities where they were earlier working !

As per news reports , there are some 13.2 crore persons registered under MGNREGA

Of which , only 16 % ( 2.1 crore ) have been given work ( job-cards ) in May 2020

If the idea is that the migrants must not return to their cities ( of work ) and should continue living in their own villages ( in UP – Bihar – W Bengal etc ) , then the question arises :

“Does Centre have the money to provide work around the year, to 13.2 crore persons ? “

Short answer is : NO

If Centre cannot give jobs to these 13.2 crore persons , can private businesses / industries ( in UP – Bihar – W Bengal etc ), give them full time jobs ?

Once again , the answer is : NO

What is the way out ?

Answer : Help them get SELF-EMPLOYED

Here is how :

Permission to create jobs ? …………………………………………………..[ 14 Mar 2020 ]

India BPO Promotion Scheme : [ IBPS ] V 2.0 ……….. [ 11 April 2018 ]

A NEW ECONOMIC ORDER ? aka " Start Up Act - 2015 " [ 12 Sept 2015 ]

Will Holograms beat H1B Visa Ban ? [ 31 Jan 2017 ]

Wormholes Across the World ? [ 03 Mar 2017 ]

" BACK FACTORY " OF THE WORLD ? [ 09 Sept 2015 ]

Thank You , Prakashbhai ( Javadekarji ) [ 03 Apr 2019 ]

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I do not expect ( or wish ) any of our Cabinet Ministers to commit “ political hara-kiri “ by publicly admitting :

“ There is no way India ( Public + Private Sector put together ) can create 12 million full time / salary-paying jobs each year ; so let us stop beating around the bush.

Let us stop fooling ourselves with all these sundry schemes for providing employment to millions of jobless. Let us learn to ignore those ivory-tower economists/economic advisors.

All that this government ( or, for that matter, any other government of the World ) can do is to help it’s citizen become Self-Employed “

Dear Shri Narendrabhai,

I urge you to tell the government officers :

“ Just get out of the way of persons trying to become Self-Employed.

If any rule / regulation comes in the way of a person trying to become Self Employed, just go ahead and drop / delete that rule.

Till the time you get around to change it, do not hesitate to break the rule. Do not wait for ok from any higher authority “

Dear Shri Narendrabhai,

No doubt “ Unlock 1 “ which begins today, will be followed by “ Unlock 2 – 3 – 4 “ etc

No matter how many Unlock periods follow, India is unlikely to get back to GDP of even 5 %, unless we succeed in Unlocking the Self-Employment potential of our people

PM-SVANidhi ( Street Vendor Loan Scheme ) is an excellent example of this “ Process of unlocking the Self-Employment potential “

But vested interests and “rule–bound“ bureaucrats [ MNRE officers + Bankers + Municipal Officers + Police ] will , most likely ensure that this scheme is “ Still Born “ !

Please , tell them :

“ Although this Scheme envisages making 50 lakh Street Vendors become Self Employed ( at budgeted outlay of Rs 5,000 crore ) , I challenge you to remove all road-blocks and give loans to 500 lakh street vendors “

Dear Shri Narendrabhai,

As far as those ROAD-BLOCKS – and how these can be removed – is concerned, please read my following e-mail sent to you , a few days back :

Thank You, Shri Hardeep Singh Puriji ………………………………..[ 01 June 2020 ]

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 08 June 2020

Saturday, 6 June 2020

Let Technology Tell Truth

All over India there is hue and cry about unavailability of hospital beds for Covid patients , despite States directing all private hospitals for 20 – 30 % reservation

Just few headlines :

Why Mumbai is running out of beds for critical Covid patients

Covid-19: When will states run out of beds?

Everywhere, patients are saying :

We are being turned away by hospitals, claiming they have no empty beds.

This made Delhi Government to launch a Mobile App which is supposed to “ tell “, which hospital has how many empty beds available . A great initiative with some “ teething troubles “, because App shows 200 empty beds whereas hospital says, we have none !

There are wide-spread reports that , on the sly, private hospitals are admitting rich patients who can dish out Rs 15-17 lakhs for Covid treatment !

This made me send following e-mail to AAP MLA , Raghav Chaddha :

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APP FOR VACANT HOSPITAL BEDS

Dear Raghav, [raghavchadha111188@gmail.com ]

Cc : 'moh.delhi@gov.in' / 'msisodia.delhi@gov.in' / cmdelhi@nic.in

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At the outset , congratulations on launching of the mobile app which shows how many beds are available in each hospital in Delhi

In long run , this app can morph enough to transform the entire Healthcare Ecosystem in entire country

In your interview with a journalist last evening on NDTV, when discrepancies were pointed out, you made following remarks :

Ø Data in respect of “ Empty Beds “ are being uploaded by each concerned Hospital authorities personnel

Ø Very often, this uploading gets delayed

Ø Sometimes , the uploaded figures are being fudged on purpose

Raghav,

As long as this ( data uploading ) process remains “ manual “ , depending upon a human , what you described above , will continue to happen !

The only PERMANENT and FOOLPROOF solution is to transfer this process from humans to TRANSPARENT – UNBIASED technology

Eg :

Simple CCTV cameras mounted on each bed – and laced with a simple software which detects whether a bed is empty or occupied – and uploading that STATUS into database, dynamically , every 10 minutes !

No big deal ! Really , extremely simple ! And neither very expensive

If you pull this off, you will set a benchmark for all other states

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com

PS :

Following report will show you how technology can be beneficially exploited :

“ Clearview AI is by far the most frightening.

Its facial-recognition app could end our ability to walk down the street anonymously.

The user takes a picture of a person, uploads it, and sees auto-populated public and semi-public photos of that person, along with links to where those photos appeared.

The system’s backbone is a database of more than three billion images that Clearview claims to have scraped from Facebook, YouTube, Venmo, and millions of other websites.

( source : https://www.fastcompany.com/90513685/we-must-turn-technology-into-a-force-for-justice?partner=feedburner&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=feedburner+fastcompany&utm_content=feedburner&utm_medium=email )

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Dear Dr HarshVardhanji,

To begin with, I urge you to adopt this TECHNOLOGY-BASED solution in all Government Hospitals so that the Mobile App launched by Delhi government “ tells the truth “ – at least as far as the government hospitals are concerned

And when it works ( which any startup can implement within a week ), you can recommend it to all the State Governments