Context :
Govt asks auto industry to prepare ‘Automotive Mission
Plan 2047’ … Business Line … 10 Apr 2024
Extract :
Prime
Minister Narendra Modi has reportedly asked the automobile industry make a
comprehensive plan to be announced as part of his ‘first 100 days’ of the new government. The
ambitious ‘Automotive
Mission Plan (AMP) 2047’ is to be announced in September.
Sources said the PM is expected to release the AMP 2047 in the Society
of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and Automotive Components Manufacturers Association (ACMA) conventions to be held in
September.
A meeting was held at the Ministry of Heavy Industries (MHI) on April 8 (Monday) to discuss
various success stories and important discussion points that can be included in
the first 100 days’ plan
of the new government and also what targets should be kept
in the AMP 2047.
The AMP 2047 aims to meet 30 per cent
target of exporting auto and auto components by 2030 and finally reaching up to 50 per cent by
2047.
“It was an informal discussion broadly on what should be there in the
third AMP. There will be more such meetings in the future and some
committees will also be made. The MHI has asked the original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs) to give some points which can be included in the ‘100 days plan’ of the
Modi government,” a source privy to the proceedings in the meeting told businessline.
The meeting was chaired by
# MHI Secretary, Kamran
Rizvi ( shioff@nic.in )
# Pawan Goenka ( Chairman@inSpace.gov.in )
-
Who is the Head of the SCALE committee
(Steering Committee for Advancing Local Value-Add and Exports).
The idea was to have an initial discussion and form constitute
sub-committees for the mission plan.
The AMP
2006-16 was launched with a vision of making India “emerge as the
destination of choice in the world for design and
manufacture of automobiles and auto components with
output reaching a level of $145 billion accounting for more than 10 per cent of
the GDP and providing additional employment to 25 million
people by 2016.”
Similarly, the second AMP 2016-26 aimed to propel the Indian
Automotive industry to be the engine of the ‘Make in India’ programme, as it is
amongst the foremost drivers of the manufacturing sector.
“ BOTH AMPS WERE NOT
SUCCESSFUL.
The first one was released by the then PM
Manmohan Singh. In the second AMP for 2016-2026 that was released in 2015, the
MHI was involved, but other ministries were not involved. So the document was
ready, but it never got discussed,” sources said.
My Take :
Mr. Kamran Rizvi , MHI Secretary
( shioff@nic.in
Mr. Pawan Goenka , Head of the SCALE committee ( Chairman@inSpace.gov.in
Mr Vinod Aggarwal , President SIAM / vkaggarwal@vecv.in
Dear Friends ,
News report reads > BOTH AMPS WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL
It does not pay to carry out a POST MORTEM
What is needed is to get from all the “ Stakeholders “, their
sharp / specific SUGGESTIONS on what needs to be done by the Government , to
male AMP-2047 , a success
As a user of car and as a citizen affected by Traffic Congestion
and GHG emissions , I am a stakeholder
I urge you to circulate among other stakeholders, my following
suggestions for a debate ( although somewhat outdated, being 5 YEARS old and focussed
on accelerating change-over to Electric Vehicles )
FAME III spanned April 2022
– March 2026 ( approx. 2 years still left )
There was no announcement for FAME IV ( - which, I assumed , if announced, might
span Apr 26 – Mar 30 )
In the following tabulation, I have summarized various suggestions which I had
made some 5 years ago.
To facilitate circulating and eliciting
comments from stakeholders , I urge you to forward to them, following
TABULATED SUMMARY , where they can enter
their comments and return to you
At the bottom of this blog , you will find details of my
suggestions along with links to specific / related e-mails sent to our Cabinet
Ministers
With regards,
Hemen Parekh
www.HemenParekh.ai /
12 April 2024
SUMMARY OF SUGGESTIONS FOR SENDING TO THE GOVERNMENT FOR
INCLUSION IN AMP 2047
|
Context
|
My
Suggestion
|
Stakeholder Comments
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAME III
|
( A.1 )
Total exemption of Corporate Income Tax for companies
exclusively engaged in the manufacture of :
Aluminium-Air Batteries
Sodium-ion Batteries
Fuel Cell ( based on hydrolysis ) developed
by CECRI
Other developments in fast-charging batteries
|
|
|
Apr 22-Mar
26
|
|
|
|
|
( A.2 )
Abolish
Corporate Income Tax ( for 10 years ) for the
entire E Mobility Eco-System
( A.3 )
Incentivizing
the E Vehicle manufacturers
E Cars having
Solar Rooftop powering a small Li-ion
Battery
Carbon Credits
Based on car specifications /
assumed average
monthly usage etc , figure
out and fix Carbon Credits
for each model of electric car
manufactured
|
|
|
|
( A.4 )
Dis-incentivize
manufacturers for production of Petrol / Diesel vehicles
|
|
|
|
( A.5 )
Incentivizing
manufacturers to get into the “ Recycling of Old Vehicles “
|
|
|
|
( B.1 )
Incentivize for purchase of E Vehicles – especially,
leasing of buses
|
|
|
|
( B.2 )
Incentivize Retro-fitting of old Petrol / Diesel
vehicles
|
|
|
|
( B.3 )
Incentivize to
switch-over to E Bikes
|
|
|
|
( B.4
Taxing all Vehicles based on their
“ Harm
Quotient “
for environment Dis-incentivize purchase of
Petrol / Diesel vehicles
|
|
|
|
( C.1 )
Wet Leasing
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
[ D ]
For taxis / rickshaws running on
Hybrid fuel (
producing less Co2 ) or Electric
Vehicles ( zero
emission ) both , the driver and
the passenger will get
Carbon Credits which will also get displayed on
the DigiMet as also on the FareCalc Mobile
App on
the smart phone of the passenger (
@ 20 % of the
fare payable ? )
|
|
|
|
[ E ] SOLAR POWER for ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Amendment to
Electricity Act
Anyone can generate and SELL electricity
, anytime and to anyone and at any price !
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAME IV
April 2026
– March 2030
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Continuation of the policy of “
Encouraging Public
Transport “ ( Buses – Taxies –
Metros etc )
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Putting in place , a policy
of “ Shared Transport “ ( of
private cars which are barely used
for 8 % of the
time )
Added on 12 April 2024 :
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Encouraging “ Remote Working “
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Facilitating Video Conferencing (
eg : Skype –
FaceTime etc )
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nation-wide Internet connectivity ( through 100 Mbps
Optical Fibres )
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All Mobile Services to be working
on 5G
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Internet through WIRELINE BROADBAND , coupled
with LI-FI in all homes
|
|
|
|
|
|
DETAILS :
Extract :
( FAME = Faster Adoption and
Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles )
National E Mobility Mission Plan [ NEMP – 2012 ]
7 million E Vehicles on the roads by 2020
Enter FAME
2015 Target > By
2030, all vehicles on Indian
roads should be Electric ( - some 300 million ? )
2016 Target > By
2030 , 25 % of the vehicles on
Indian roads should be electric ( - 75 million ? )
FAME II
( Ap 19 – Mar 22 ) - 3 Years ……….. EVs to get Cheaper
Highlights of FAME II :
# Scheme starts
on …………………………….. 01 April 2019
# Total value of Subsidy
Package …………. Rs 10,000 Crore
# Charging Stations ( Rs 1,300 Cr
)………….2,700
Current Targets
/ Subsidy Amounts :
|
Type of E Vehicle
/ Battery Capacity (KWh)
|
Target
Number ( 3 YR )
|
Subsidy
Amount / Maximum Veh Price (Rs )
|
End
Use prescribed
|
|
Buses
|
7,090
|
35-60
lakh / 2 crore
|
Public
Transport
|
|
Cars (
Hybrid ) / 15 - 25
|
20,000
|
5000-20,000 / 15 lakh
|
Taxi /
Aggregator
|
|
Cars (
Electric ) / 15 - 25
|
35,000
|
1.5 - 2.5
lakh / 15 lakh
|
Taxi /
Aggregator
|
|
3
Wheelers / 5
- 10
|
500,000
|
50,000-1
lakh / 5 lakh
|
Commercial
|
|
2 Wheeler / 2
– 4
|
1,000,000
|
20K-40K / 1.5
lakh
|
Private use
|
Are these targets
achievable ?
Following figures speak for themselves :
|
Type
of E - Vehicle
|
Target
for 3 years
|
Therefore
Per Year
|
Actual
EV sold in 17-18
|
|
Buses
|
7,090
|
Approx.
2,300
|
Less than 200 ?
|
|
Cars (
Hybrid )
|
20,000
|
Approx.
7,000
|
NIL
|
|
Cars (
Electric )
|
35,000
|
20,000
|
1,200
|
|
3 Wheelers
|
500,000
|
175,000
|
132,000 (
low cap Ricks )
|
|
2 Wheelers
|
1,000,000
|
333,000
|
58,400
|
How much of above targets are likely to be
achieved ?
|
Type
of Veh
|
17-18(Actual)
|
18-19(Est)
|
19-20(Est)
|
20-21(Est)
|
3yr
total(E)
|
3yr
Target
|
%age
likely
|
|
Buses
|
200
|
500
|
750
|
1000
|
2,250
|
7090
|
32
|
|
Cars ( Hy )
|
Nil
|
500
|
1,000
|
2,000
|
3,500
|
20,000
|
17.5
|
|
Cars ( E )
|
1,200
|
3,000
|
5,000
|
7,000
|
15,000
|
35,000
|
43
|
|
3 Wheelers
( excluding E - Ricks with less than 5
KWh battery )
|
132,000
( all sold
were under 5 kwh battery, which do not qualify for subsidy )
|
10,000
( with battery bigger than 5 KWh )
|
15,000
|
25,000
|
50,000
|
500,000
|
10
|
|
2 Wheeler
|
58,400
|
75,000
|
100,000
|
125,000
|
300,000
|
1,000,000
|
30
|
Ref :
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/in/Documents/public-sector/in-ev-report.pdf
China has 250 million Electric 2
wheelers with annual sales of 30 million
What is the reason for this pessimism ?
# Non-availability of “ Fast “ battery charging
stations every few km, resulting in “ range anxiety “ for EV
buyers
# Maintenance / Service / Repair garages for Electric
vehicles, on each corner ( new technology poses
problems )
# Despite the subsidies, ex-factory prices will still
remain much higher than for equivalent Petrol / Diesel
vehicles
# Ramping up production is a very complex and
time-consuming process. Not like turning on a tap !
What , if any , is the shortcoming of just
announced FAME II ?
# It focuses solely on “ Incentivizing the Buyers “ through subsidies
# There are no “ Incentives “ for the
vehicle manufacturers to ramp up production or commercialize “ cost
reducing “ technologies,
especially in the matter of Lithium-ion batteries which constitute up to 40 %
of EV
ex- factory price
# There are no “ dis-incentives “
for manufacture / sale / purchase of Petrol – Diesel vehicles
# Linking the subsidy amounts with
battery size is not the right method . In fact a vehicle with a smaller size
battery , but giving same
performance ( speed – range – charging time etc ) as a vehicle with a bigger
battery, should be
rewarded with higher subsidy ! Efficient use of input resources must be
encouraged
# There is no
directive with regard to scrapping of old ( more than 10 years ) petrol /
diesel vehicles
What would you recommend next ?
FAME III
( Apr 22 - Mar
26 ) – 4
years
[ A ]….. MANUFACTURERS
( A.1 )
Policy Instrument
> Corporate Income Tax for Incentivizing
the manufacturers of Batteries
Total exemption of Corporate Income
Tax for companies exclusively engaged in the manufacture of :
# Aluminium-Air Batteries ( No
need for any roadside battery charging stations ! )
EV juice from Alu-Air Battery ? [ 16 Jan 2018 ]
# Sodium-ion Batteries ( Reduce
battery cost to 10 % of Lithium-ion Battery cost ! )
# Fuel
Cell ( based on hydrolysis ) developed
by CECRI ( literally FREE electricity and zero
pollution )
# Other
developments in fast-charging batteries ( under 5 minutes for 80 % charge )
(
A.2 ) Abolish Corporate Income Tax (
for 10 years ) for the entire E Mobility Eco-System
(
A.3 ) Incentivizing
the E Vehicle manufacturers
# E Cars having
Solar Rooftop powering a small Li-ion Battery
Way
back in March 2017 , ISRO demonstrated a OMNI retro-fitted with a Solar Panel
roof-top ,
charging
a high density Lithium-ion Battery – eliminating need for roadside charging
stations !
Most
likely, such a car would cost under Rs 10 lakh
As
against this , German company SONO MOTORS just released its own final
design for a similar
car
with solar roof top and a 35 KWh battery , selling for Euro 25,500 ( Rs 20.5 Lakh )
Government
must go all out to persuade Indian Car Manufacturers to adopt ISRO technology
Not
only, will we save lakhs of crore of Rupees in Battery Charging Infrastructure
but we would
Be able to export millions of
such E Cars all over the world
Policy Instrument
> Carbon Credits
Based
on car specifications / assumed average monthly usage etc , figure out
and fix
*
" Carbon Credits " for each model of electric car
manufactured
*
Based on Carbon Credits earned , calculate Direct Transfer of Benefit ( DTB )
to electric
car
manufacturers based on monthly dispatches of each model and then transfer these
amounts
from EVFF ( Electric Vehicle Finance Fund ) , as
incentives to manufacturers
PIYUSH PLAN
? [ 27 Mar 2016 ]
( A.4 ) ….. Dis-incentivize
manufacturers for production of Petrol / Diesel vehicles
This could be achieved by gradually raising
the GST rate for such vehicles, starting from April
2022 and simultaneously gradual reduction in the
GST rate for Electric vehicles
( A.5 )… Incentivizing manufacturers to
get into the “ Recycling of Old Vehicles “
By
ordering to stop usage of old vehicles in Delhi, already a serious problem has
arisen in respect
of their storage and disposal
When applied on all-India basis, this could lead to millions of old vehicles getting
“ abandoned “
and cluttering the city-scape
But,
this seeming nightmare could be turned into a profitable business opportunity
by adoption of :
==================================================================
[ B ] BUYERS
(
B.1 ) Incentivize
for purchase of E Vehicles – especially, leasing of buses. FAME II
( just announced )
Provide
depreciation to private individual buyers
(
B.2 ) Incentivize
Retro-fitting of old Petrol / Diesel vehicles ( non-compliant
with BS VI norms )
Give
subsidies to “Current Owners of Old Vehicles “ at 150 % of subsidies announced
under FAME II
(
B.3 ) Incentivize
to switch-over to E Bikes
Most users of 2 Wheelers (costing Rs
1.5 lakh – 2 lakh ) run for less than 10 Km in a one way trip
For
them , FAME II proposes a onetime subsidy of Rs 20,000 – Rs 40,000
A
cheaper / faster alternative would be to retro-fit a standard / normal cycle ,
costing Rs 15,000 , with a,
Geo-Orbital wheel
( costing approx. Rs 20,000 ) to run 30 Km at a speed of 30 kmph
What
are the advantages ?
# India
already produces 18 million cycles every year – largest in the world
# All
of these are capable of being retro-fitted by Geo-Orbital wheel
( takes just ONE minute ! )
# Electric
Motor of Geo-Orbital wheel is just
500 Watts !
# Even
if battery gets discharged half way , manual pedaling will work ! No range
anxiety !
# Instead
of giving a subsidy of Rs 40,000 for a factory-built Electric 2 wheeler, a
subsidy of Rs 10,000
For retro-fitting of Geo Orbital wheel, will
enable 4 times as many ( = 4 million ) users to commute
faster !
# Wheel can
be re-charged at home at night , in 3-4 hours
# Bicycle
riding can be done by persons less than 16 years of age and does not require a
driving license !
How
are other countries encouraging cycling for reducing fossil fuel pollution ?
Following
countries are “ paying “ citizens to use cycle :
Per Km run :
# The
Netherlands …… $ 0.22 / km [ =
Rs 14 x 1000 km / month = Rs 168,000 /
year ]
# UK
…………………………. $ 0.16 / km [ =
Rs 12 x 1000 km / month = Rs 144,000 / year ]
# Belgium
………………… $ 0.26 / km [ =
Rs 18 x 1000 km / month = Rs 216,000 / year ]
Fixed
amount :
# France ………………… $ 230
/ year [ = Rs 16,
100 / year ]
# USA…………………….. $ 240
/ year [ = Rs 16,800 / year ]
Fix Tax rebate to buy
bicycle :
# Luxembourg…………. $ 340 [ = Rs 23,800 ]
(
B.4 ).. Policy
Instrument > Taxing
all Vehicles based on their “ Harm Quotient “ for environment
Dis-incentivize
purchase of Petrol / Diesel vehicles
Instead of spending /
wasting scarce government funds to “ Subsidize “
the buyers for purchase of E
Vehicles, ( and that too, for 3 years ) , it
would be far better to “ dis-incentivize
/ penalize “
them ( and
permanently ), by
introduction of Pigovian TRANS-TAX on each and every
vehicle , for its entire life ( no
more “ Old Vehicles “only ), as conceptualized
in detail , at :
Transport : an Integrated Logistic
Plan ? [ 20 Nov 2018 ]
==============================================
[ C ] GOVERNMENT
(
C.1 ) P0licy
Instrument > Wet
Leasing [ Thank You , Shri
Jaitleyji / 25 Dec 2018 ]
Today ,
there is a total disconnect between E Vehicle manufacturers and Battery
Charging Stations
E Vehicle
manufacturers have no incentive to set up charging stations , which, to them
are the
Responsibility of the Governments ( Central +
States )
This attitude will change overnight ,
if all government purchases of E Vehicles ( Central + State +
Municipal ) are on
a “ WET LEASE “ basis , where the lease rent is
fixed on a “ Per
Km “ of actual usage (
instead of “ Per day / month “ ) .
For over a year ,
I have been urging EESL to switch-over to this instead
of outright purchase
To ensure that
the E Cars supplied by them to the governments are never stopped because of
battery
discharge ( and
waiting for its 5 hour wait / turn, to get charged at some charging station 10
km away ),
the manufacturers will ensure putting in
place, a vast network of Battery Charging Stations , ON THEIR
OWN !
[ D ] PASSENGERS
OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT (
Non-Vehicle Owners )
For
taxis / rickshaws running on Hybrid fuel ( producing less Co2 ) or Electric
Vehicles ( zero emission )
both
, the driver and the passenger will get " Carbon Credits " , which will also get
displayed on
the DigiMet as also on the FareCalc Mobile App on the smart
phone of the passenger ( @ 20 % of the
fare payable ? )
These
amounts will get transferred to their respective Jan Dhan Bank Accounts ( thru DTB ) , every
[ E ] SOLAR POWER for ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Policy Instrument > Amendment to Electricity Act
Anyone can generate and
SELL electricity , anytime and to anyone and at any price !
===================================================
FAME IV
[ April 2026 – March 2030 ] - …… 4 YEARS
At the end of FAME II
/ FAME III ( 3 + 4 =
7 years ) , government must focus its attention and
efforts on
finding and implementing, long term solutions .
Solutions which are aimed at “ Reducing Vehicles “ of all kinds
from roads, by “ Reducing Need to Travel “
Without doubt , these will have following priorities :
# Continuation of the policy of “
Encouraging Public Transport “ ( Buses – Taxies – Metros etc )
# Putting in place , a policy
of “ Shared Transport “ ( of private cars which are barely used for
8 % of the
time )
Going beyond these, “ Need to Travel “ ( in most cases ) , can
be dramatically reduced by ,
# Encouraging “ Remote Working “
# Facilitating Video Conferencing ( eg : Skype
– FaceTime etc )
The steps to achieve these twin objectives , are :
# Nation-wide Internet connectivity ( through
100 Mbps Optical Fibres )
# All Mobile Services to be working on 5G
# Internet through
WIRELINE BROADBAND , coupled with LI-FI in all homes
References :
